How Crowd-Forecasting Might Decrease the Cybersecurity Knowledge Deficit

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U.S. Capitol at night (Thomas Hawk, https://flic.kr/p/WF8Fiq; CC BY-NC 2.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/)

What if it were possible to predict, with a measurable degree of accuracy, what actions the U.S. government and private sector will undertake over the course of the next year to harden the United States’ overall cybersecurity posture?

To answer this question, we might ask government officials, intelligence analysts or congressional staffers what they expect to see. We might analyze industry trends or statements by leading security teams. We might poll chief information security officers (CISOs) and policy experts. We might throw up our hands and maintain that speculating on questions like these is ultimately futile.

Or we might try to predict the future more directly. In recent years, crowd-fo

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